Midcapping College Football 2006

It's been quite a half-season of college football this year, with a few surprise teams, several good games, one 1 vs. 2 matchup, a few upsets, some disappointments and the sight of a team that is collapsing into itself. Hopefully some of these events can be some good sources for jokes.

My Pre-Season Rankings Predictions

We all knew they were going to be wrong and they did not disappoint. Oh well, what can you do?

The funny thing about it is that my top ten was still looking feasible, if not likely, two weeks ago. Then Florida State went in the tank, Georgia started losing, and Adrian Peterson broke his collarbone. Darn sixth and seventh week of the season. But as long as I am right about #1 on January 9th, the rest of the rankings can rot for all I care.

As for my other predictions, Notre Dame did not hammer Georgia Tech in Week 1. USC and Texas keep winning, but that was too easy to really call a prediction. The mystery team of destiny is not Georgia, but it may very well be Michigan or Tennessee (if so, the surprising newcomer was not a player but offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe). But it's still too early to tell. You never know, there may not be one at all. And if Ohio State is going to with a national title, it looks like they will do it wire-to-wire. And the SEC is about as expected, though it's impossible to tell what is going to come out of that mess. I'll bet it ain't Georgia, though.

The only shame about it is that Tennessee's surprising newcomer is not their 6-1, 220 lb., fifth-year senior quarterback from Lynchburg, TN, Jim Bob Cooter.
You can see a picture of him here: UT Cooter Bio.
Here's a picture of him in action: Cooter Makes It Happen.

Jim Bob Cooter and former Ohio State cornerback Richard "Dick" McNutt need team up somehow or go into business together. Like making a breakfast cereal called Cooter McNuttys.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes have been scary good this year and their ability to maintain focus even in "trap" games has been astounding. The defense has been improving every week and their ability to create turnovers is nothing short of amazing. Troy Smith is like a The schedule clears quite a bit for the next few weeks, but the big matchup against the Wolverines is looming already. Both teams should be able to get through to The Game unscathed, creating an opportunity for The Game to be The Biggest Game Ever. Supposing, of course, that the winner of The Game wins the national title. Otherwise, it's just another Game.

The ACC: Make it stop

I said that the ACC is surprisingly strong this year and I still hold by that. This is not to say that they are an exceptional conference, because they still aren't that good. But Florida State is good enough in most respects, Clemson is decent, Virginia Tech is good, Miami(FL) is okay, Georgia Tech isn't so bad, and Boston College and NC State are still there. Even Wake Forest has turned out alright. Virginia, a routinely mediocre team the last few years, is probably just as unremarkable this year, it's just that they have to play teams that aren't complete crap.

Yes, the ACC is surprisingly strong. But it's still not that strong. It's a league that is surprisingly strong for the ACC. Which means that it's a league with a lot of teams that should be ranked somewhere in the area of 12 to Also Receiving Votes. But they don't have a top level. It's a lot of mid-range teams that won't wow anybody. Compare that with the SEC, which has several top-10 caliber teams, but not much filling the gap between them and the scraps at the bottom. Honestly, the only team in the ACC I would pick to be a perennial power -- like Alabama or USC or Michigan -- is Florida State. The rest of them are nothing all that special. And I mean perennial power as in, over the course of 60-80 years, not just 20 years or so.

I was going to write an entire article about the Miami-FIU brawl, but I realized that I was not done thinking about it yet. There is something going on there that I can't put my finger on. I believe it is related to the fact that a lousy team like FIU was not the least big scared of the once terrifying Miami Hurricanes, but that isn't quite it. Though I do think that it is some sort of indication that the collapse of the Miami empire is progressing much faster than I had anticipated.

The SEC & PAC 10

How do you really get your team fired up to play hard? Well, Tommy Tuberville does it by telling them and the world that they don't have a chance in hell of playing for a national title! And wow, did they respond to that when they got popped to the tune of 27-10 against Arkansas! Good job Tommy, you're a moron.

I have heard a great deal lately about how great the SEC is, and I will acknowledge that they are the best conference in the country right now. They have depth, a lot of good players, plenty of good coaches, and the schedule is a grueling grind that never seems to have a week off. Even an excellent team can be knocked off in this league because it is such a test with almost every game.

Unfortunately, the SEC is not all that keen to actually show that it is all that good. Schedules for SEC teams are usually pretty weak in the non-conference, with most of the teams playing a I-AA opponent at least once a year and many of the teams never leaving their home stadium at all for the non-conference slate. There are some teams that do leave their stadiums, but many of them are the weaker teams that are acting as another team's payday. The most common counterexamples are the annual inter-sectional rivalries, but these are usually cross-state rivalries and the two teams would have to play each other whether they like it or not.

I'd like to contrast this scheduling method with the schedules of another BCS conference: the PAC-10. The PAC-10 knows full well that they are far from the nexus of peoples' awareness. Two to three time zones distant from most of the country's population, they can easily be overlooked. With few teams in the region and precious few of them actually worth mentioning, any team that is worth playing is usually already in the conference.

However, the PAC-10 doesn't just schedule Mountain West and WAC teams. Or Sun Belt Conference teams, for that matter. No, they attempt to find some quality competition. And, in order to do that, they go east.

Almost every PAC-10 team plays at least one decent to very good BCS team every year. In fact, the PAC-10 even goes out and plays a few teams in the SEC. USC played Arkansas, Cal played Tennessee, Washington State played Auburn, and Arizona played LSU. Sure, only USC won their SEC game, but at least they are going out there and trying. By risking a loss, they are playing to get good wins. And the experience they get against those other BCS team can't do anything but help them when they get to their conference schedule. And I'm willing to guess that Arkansas picked up some quality lessons from their USC experience that stood them in good stead against Auburn.

While the PAC-10 does not have the most stellar reputation right now, they do take risks. And that allowed them to win an AP national title in a year that they didn't qualify for the BCS title game. SEC fans should remember that year, LSU still complains about being the real national titlists that year. Oh, and USC also went to Auburn and schlocked them 23-0 in 2003.

I do understand that Tommy Tuberville is still fuming over the fact that he was snubbed a couple of years ago when he went 13-0 and only got an SEC title and a Sugar Bowl trophy from the deal. I can understand his reasons; finishing #1 is a ticket to longevity in a job that is anything but stable. And an undefeated season requires a rare confluence of talent in the players and coaching staff and not but a little luck. But Auburn never filled the out-of-conference section of the application in 2004 in order to chase a national title, figuring that a clean sweep of the SEC would be enough. But the SEC was also down that year, making the SEC resume look worse. But don't forget that the very fact that the SEC was down made it easier for Auburn to go through undefeated.

The problem that Tuberville has created for himself is that he is now in a no-win situation. He finishes the regular season with one loss and doesn't get into the title game, he has been shut out twice and now he's perceived as "snakebit". He finishes the regular season with one loss and gets into the title game, he is an idiot because he said it couldn't be done -- so what else is he wrong about? He finishes the regular season with more than one loss, well, that means he lost again and that sucks for him.

Honestly, the SEC is currently a conference with a lot of top 10 teams, but none that have yet distinguished themselves as a top 5 team. But Tennessee has been quietly gathering strength as the others beat each other down, though they have not been tested that much and will have to hope that Florida drops their game against Georgia if they want to get themselves into the SEC championship game. And Auburn is still lurking and dangerous. But no matter your opinion of the SEC, you've got to admit it will be fun to watch.

Misplaced Emphasis

Yes, I know the national title is the holy grail of every team in the country. And I love to see my team go out there and vie for one. And I loved it when I got to see Ohio State finally win the damn thing. But here's what I also understand: you'd better have something else to look forward to.

Almost every team in the country is going to lose a game sometime in the regular season. It's a fact of life. And, in most years, that loss is going to knock a team out of national title contention. But a team had better be able to shift focus if they want to do something with their season. National titles are nice and all, but there are 118 other teams who want one, about 60-70 teams that are in a legitimately viable position from which to launch an attempt, and about 40 who have the name recognition to pull it off. Of those 40 teams, there are about 10 who can be reasonably expected to win more than one title in a span of some 30 years -- which would be a long coaching career, indeed. All of which means that a coach needs something more to live off of than just national titles. Like the legendary Bo Schembechler, who won exactly zero national titles on the way to a place in the pantheon of great college coaches.

For instance, let us take the case of Fresno State and Pat Hill. Now I have been pretty impressed with the Bulldogs the last few years, particularly for their attitude of wanting to play any team anywhere to get some attention for their program. That's all well and good, but do you know why I would bring up the number of WAC conference titles that Fresno State has won since the arrival of Pat Hill? I would imagine that it is because he has only won one WAC title in his ten years there. It was in 1999 and he shared it with Hawaii and TCU. While I do find his method for getting Fresno State noticed by the BCS conferences very admirable, I think it would also be admirable to take care of conference he is actually in.

If a team wants to get into the BCS, they need to win their conference first. That's the one thing they have the most control over and they need to take care of that. Even the non-BCS schools who want to get into the BCS. Particularly because non-BCS schools are playing in leagues where a loss looks particularly bad. Besides, if you can't take care of your conference, what makes you think you can take care of the entire country?

Sooners vs. Ducks & Zebras

Oklahoma got screwed in the Oregon game, with some officiating that could only be described as nearly criminal. And I agree that Oklahoma should have won that game. However, I was not impressed with Oklahoma's response to the game, when their university president was calling for the NCAA to strike the game from the recordbooks. Honestly, I can understand that the coaches and fans and athletic department would be fuming, but I don't like the idea of the university president considering football that important that he decides to throw his weight around.

Likewise, I don't have a problem with Oklahoma fans being upset and very angry. However, much of the fervor has died down because a loss to Texas is worse than any loss to Oregon -- no matter how dodgy the circumstances -- and losing the chance at a national title is no longer a concern. It looks like even the Big XII is out of reach now.

What I would like to point out though, is that even if Oklahoma somehow managed to get the Oregon game struck from the record books, it would not really make it all better. The most important thing in sports is the moment. That release of pent-up anticipation and stress when the clock stikes zero, the gleeful shock of success in a last-second win, the unmerciful numbness of realization that the game is really over and the team has lost. These are the moments that create memories. Erasing the game from the record books would make people feel vindicated, but it would never really make it better. The time for that has already gone.

The Future

Okay, what do I think is going to happen the rest of the way, now that the season is half over? Well, I've got a few inklings.

  1. Notre Dame should watch themselves againt UCLA. ND is coming off a bye week and teams generally play flat after those. And with the easy part of their schedule coming up, they may be in easy-going mode already. With the number of injuries the Bruins are dealing with right now, the Irish should be able to beat them handily. I just wonder if they will.
  2. Notre Dame may very well beat USC this year, unless USC can pull their offense together.
  3. If Louisville or West Virginia can finish the season undefeated, they will move past Auburn. I know this because they aren't that far off of Auburn in the BCS standings and neither Big East team has gotten into the meat of their respective schedules. WVU in particular has been untested, as they have the 102nd best schedule in the country. Both teams still have to play big games against Pitt, Rutgers (go figure), and each other. Not only would wins over those teams help each team in the computer polls, but it would give them a boost in the human polls too. Humans like to see teams prove their worth on the field too. Neither team is strong enough to pass USC, but USC has their own problems getting through their season with a stagnant offense and a PAC-10 that has a couple not-awful teams that have been chomping at the bit in anticipation of knocking off a weakened USC.
  4. Michigan should be wary against Iowa. Iowa was looking ahead against Indiana and now they have nothing to lose. Michigan is way better than the Hawkeyes, but they miss Manningham. The Wolverines just have to guard against complacency against a team that will be dangerous if they can relax and finally get on a roll. Otherwise, this game could go all 4 quarters.
  5. Don't look now but... wait, you're looking! I told you not to. Now I'm not going to tell you what I was going to say. Well, if you're going to take that tone of voice with me, you can just leave.
  6. I think Notre Dame should break their bowl losing streak this year. They should if they play an SEC team because no SEC team has seen an offense like Notre Dame's (well, Arkansas did against USC) and no SEC school has the players to go over the top of their secondary; which is how you beat Notre Dame this year.
  7. I think the Big Ten is going to have a rough go of it come bowl season. Ohio State and Michigan should both be BCS teams and both certainly have teams that should be able to win those games. However, the talent drops off after that and I'm not sure that the middle of the pack teams can take being bumped up a grade level.
  8. With as few unbeatens as there are this early in the year, I think there's about a 50-50 chance that a 1-loss team can make the BCS championship game. My best guess would be that it comes down to, God help us, whether a Big East school can finish undefeated. This guess is, honestly, probably even dumber than my concerns about UCLA vs. Notre Dame. On second thought, ignore it.
  9. I think next week's Michigan State-Indiana game is a playoff game for bowl eligibility for both teams.
  10. I like what Terry Hoeppner is doing at Indiana. Last year, despite their overwhelming lack of talent, they looked like a different team than the usual Hoosiers. However, I just don't know how I, as a player, would feel about my coach coming back almost immediately from brain surgery. Now I do consider this a marvel of modern medicine and I am very impressed by Hoeppner's tenacity and desire to coach. And you've got to admit that it's a very stirring/heartwarming story and all but... it was his damn brain! Isn't he going to need that sometime during the season?