Ah, college football. There is nothing like it. That yearly ritual of anticipation, possibility, and the inevitability of thoroughgoing, gut-churning, athletic disaster. I'm eager to get to it too.
I had so much fun making last season's almost not-disastrous predictions that I think it's time for me to do that again. Because if there's anything I enjoy, it's sharing my own crackpot opinions.
The thing about picking teams this year is that some of the most interesting things happening right now are, in some ways, on the sidelines of the game. But I'll get to those later. For now, let's just worry about this year's teams and their players.
I suppose I could make a few statements about what I'm going to say and explain my prediction methods, but I'm not really in the mood. Rather, I'm going to just get to them. After all, why leave you hanging when I'm about to say something crazy? No, instead, I'm just going to get to the craziness and explain afterward.
So let's go through your questions in order. Or, really, your question. Which is:
Sure, why not?
Okay, aside from the bit where they really didn't have much defense last year, play in a weak conference, probably have no chance against a top-notch team, and have never won a national title. Ever. Not even a goofy computer ranking title provided by their accountant for tax purposes. But they are actually a pretty good team to put at the top of the list.
Reason one is the simplest: they are the least likely to make me look stupid. Yes, USC is looking awfully snazzy, LSU is right up there, Florida is coming back with their Urban Meyer offense and Michigan is returning the core from an 11-2 team. But, honestly, none of them really fires me up and all of them look pretty chancy in one way or another.
In case you had not noticed, the rest of the PAC-10 is starting to catch up to USC. This may sound crazy, and I will not deny that they have by far the best talent in the conference, but the other teams are looking at USC as the way to make a mark on their season. Every player on every other team is making darn sure that they know every USC player's game better than they know themselves. Any mistake, any hole in their game, anything that telegraphs a play, a motion or a move is being scrutinized endlessly as we speak. Or as you read, I should say. And if the Trojans have a rough day against the wrong team, they are going down. And with the general, perceived weakness of the PAC-10, that loss is going to look bad.
Is the rest of the PAC-10 as good as USC? No. But are nine other teams killing themselves in the offseason to make sure that they have a chance to knock them off? You'd better believe it. And some of them have 3 years of experience playing against USC, so they are going to get the hang of it.
Compare that with the "superior" teams in the SEC. USC has kicked SEC teams around for a few years now because the SEC teams are not used to that brand of football. But the PAC-10 has been forced to pick up a few things in the last few years and, even if they are not able to match up physically, some of them will be tenacious enough to at least hang in there through three quarters and see if a couple of breaks go their way.
LSU seems to be everyone's number 2, but I'm not sold. After all, this is a team that had Jamarcus Russell, who burst onto the scene in the Sugar Bowl. The issue at hand is the fact that they had Jamarcus Russell on their team and he did not make a name for himself until the Sugar Bowl. It just doesn't give me a good feeling, especially when you consider the top-to-bottom quality of the SEC. Others see a team that has the talent to reload after an 11-2 season. I see a team that underutilized a very good quarterback who might have been able to get them to 13-1 or 14-0 (counting the SEC title game that they didn't reach because they lost two league games). You miss an opportunity like that, you may not get another one.
Yes, I know that the Urban Meyer offense is very creative and he finds a way to get the most out of the players that he has. However, he also has a new starting quarterback and, if I remember correctly, no backup quarterback. Which means that the option game that Meyer favors cannot be run. Or at least not without taking the chance of losing a quarterback and every game after that. Add in the fact that Meyer's offense tends to be pretty complex, and therefore difficult for a first-year starter to pick up, and I'm not sold on the Gators this year.
Michigan is a very good team, but they are not a good choice for the #1 slot. Yes, they have the core of their offense returning, but I am not "#1 team" impressed with them. First, they had a very rough end to the 2006 season, with a loss to Ohio State and a shelling by USC and I expect them to be either frustrated or overanxious to prove themselves. Secondly, they lost several key players from the defense that made them such a powerhouse. Third, their offensive players are not firing me up.
Mike Hart, I will grant, is a darn good running back. He is a straight-ahead bull with a good nose for a hole and the ability to squeeze a few extra yards out of any run. But he lacks the breakaway speed that he needs to be explosive. I don't think he had a run longer than 40 yards all season, which is rather disappointing. Considering the bulldozers he had up front, he had his opportunities to break into the open field and make some long touchdown runs. However, I can remember that, even against Ball State, he was getting caught from behind when he had nothing but grass between him and the goal line and he had a good amount of grass between himself and the defenders chasing him. Big runs like that have to be capitalized on when they are available, but Mike Hart has not been able to do so. Which is not what you like to see in a man who is in the game on every down. But none of the other Michigan running backs gets on the field all that much, so it seems that he's all they have.
The Michigan receiving in general and Mario Manningham in particular are very good, there is no doubt about that. But I'm not sold on Chad Henne. He reminds me a lot of two people: Bobby Hoying and John Navarre: Bobby Hoying because he seems to be more of a product of the quality of his receivers than his own skills; I think he often looks good just because he's the guy who's throwing the ball to some great receivers. He reminds me of John Navarre because he looked pretty darned good as a freshman, but does not seem to be any better as a sophomore or junior; I don't see him progressing in any way. Lloyd Carr should look into upgrading his quarterback coach, because he doesn't seem to really be doing all that much.
None of the other suspects really fires me up; they all seem risky to me. West Virginia, however, seems to be at least close to title game material, if not necessarily a title team.
West Virginia is playing in a not-awful, but unspectacular Big East, which means they have a decent shot at running the table. West Virginia runs a unique offense that no other team can really match in practice, with Steve Slaton and Patrick White running an option that is damn fun to watch, and with the addition of All-Everything recruit and possible head case Noel Devine, they should be explosive enough to keep them in every game. The game that will probably be the biggest of the year for them, Louisville, is a home game. So they seem to have all the ingredients for a run to the title game. And, with their unusual brand of football and the general expectation that they would lose the title game, they seem as good a title pick as any.
I also have a loopy hunch that one of the weaker BCS conferences -- meaning the Big East and the ACC -- should be able to deliver a team to the title game this year. There is nobody in the ACC I would trust to cross the street properly, much less win out, so I'll take the best choice in the Big East, fine thanks.
The other issue at hand is the overwhelming lack of any particularly alluring title teams. Nobody really seems to be a wire-to-wire good idea like Ohio State seemed to be last year or USC the year before. Yes, both teams lost the last game of the year, but both looked like safe choices to get there even before the season started. The closest thing to that this year is USC, but I have listed my reasons for not trusting them to carry the baton for me. Plus, John David Booty is not Matt Leinart.
Yes, I know that West Virginia is a dangerous choice and really a pretty risky one, but I am not sold on the safer bets. Besides, what's there to lose by going on a limb for once?
Why Texas at #2? Because I'm not all that overwhelmed with the depth of the Big XII this year, and I think Texas should be able to do very well if Colt McCoy can stay healthy. However, he got banged up pretty badly last year, so that buckaroo may not be all that durable. But I don't want to put any given SEC team in the #2 slot because I can't for the life of me figure out just which SEC team it should be there.
Yes, I know they lost six starters from last year's offense, but last year's offense was terrible. Bad experience can be worse than no experience at all. And I'm guessing that there will be two top-5 SEC teams this year. Auburn was really just a guess among several options. And Tuberville is an excellent coach, so let's go with him.
As my reader knows, this is really the important part.
I'd love to put Ohio State higher up in the rankings, but I have too many concerns about them to throw them high up on the list. But I think they have the ingredients to make some moves in the not-too-distant future.
Let's face it, the Debacle in the Desert was an unrecoverable disaster. I could spend 10,000 or 100,000 words detailing everything that went wrong before and during that game. Everything that could have gone wrong to undermine Ohio State's chances happened. Most was brought on by Florida, some they brought on themselves, some they had given to them, some things just happened that came out of nowhere. What I do know is that I want to throw up every time I see a Gatorade ad now.
After that demolition, it is my opinion that any Ohio State player who was part of it is probably going to feel, in some respect, soiled for the experience. Which is why it may be better that much of the core of last year's offense left -- I think the Buckeyes may be better off with a something like a fresh start. Put in a new core of talent and let them try to make it on their own -- this gives me hope for this season.
Unfortunately, I also see a team that has a big trap game the third week of the season and very little that will prepare it for the month-long gauntlet to end the season. They are getting put through the ringer starting October 27th and the teams they are playing are going to be pissed at them from last season.
First issue: Washington. Yes, Washington. Ohio State is playing at Washington on September 15th and that is a dangerous game for them. The Buckeyes will have only played games against Youngstown State and Akron to start the season, whereas Washington is kicking off at Syracuse then home against Boise State. This means that Washington will have some good experience against teams that go into games expecting to win. Admittedly, Syracuse is aspiring to someday be accounted mediocre, but at least they have some talent on the roster, a respectable history, and a home game against the Huskies, who will have traveled all the way across the country for the game. After that, Washington faces a solid Boise State team that won't be afraid of anybody following their win in the Fiesta Bowl. So by the time Washington has the game against Ohio State, they will be battle-tested.
While I will grant that Ohio State will be playing teams that are eager to knock off the big boys in the state, YSU and Akron are not going to have the quality of athletes that Washington does. And neither does it help that Ohio State has to travel two-thirds of the way across the country for the Washington game, so they are going to have to deal with travel weariness and jetlag while they are working out the kinks in a reconstituted offense. I foresee a lot of handing off in Seattle.
However, things get pretty quiet for Ohio State after the Washington game. The best teams they play over the next few weeks are Purdue and Northwestern (barring a sudden resurgence by Michigan State). But that all changes on October 27th when they travel to Penn State. Things get interesting then. Right after that is home against Wisconsin, home against an improving Illinois, and at Michigan. Not exactly the sort of schedule that you can get prepared for by playing three Ohio schools in one season.
I'm hoping that Jim Tressel's annual ability to get his team to improve as the year goes on will come through again this year. But I'm not betting on it. Particularly not when the strength of this team, according to some pundits, is their defense. From what I remember of their defense last year, they couldn't shed blocks and, even if they did, couldn't tackle when they got to the ball carrier. They survived on the occasional tackle for loss on first down that would allow them to give up 9 yards on second down and hope for an incomplete pass. Then the offense would get going so that the other team was forced to pass to try to make up the difference.
With that said, some regrouping time may be necessary for this team. They need to find some new leaders this year and maybe they can assemble the core that can get them back on top next year or the year after.
I think I'd better stop here. This is already long enough for one day. I'll cover the off-field issues that are plaguing my mind later.